[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Brief] 20250820

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Briefing]

Coking coal market:

Low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen was offered at 1,470 yuan/mt. Low-sulphur coking coal in Tangshan was offered at 1,450 yuan/mt.

Raw material fundamentals, market sentiment cooled down, with some high-priced coal grades facing difficulties in order signing, and offers saw appropriate corrections. However, production resumptions at previously suspended mines progressed slowly, and new mine suspensions emerged, keeping overall supply tight. Additionally, most mines had orders to fulfill, leaving limited downside room for coking coal prices in the short term.

Coke market:

Nationwide average prices were: first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quenching (1,790 yuan/mt), quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quenching (1,650 yuan/mt), first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quenching (1,440 yuan/mt), and quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quenching (1,350 yuan/mt).

Supply side, affected by environmental protection policy, coke producers received production restrictions notices, and coke supply is expected to tighten further. Additionally, coke inventory at coke producers remained persistently low, making it difficult for short-term coke supply to improve. Demand side, coke arrivals at steel mills gradually improved, and some Tangshan steel mills received notices requiring blast furnaces to limit production by 30%-40% of capacity from August 31 to September 3. Steel mills' rigid demand for coke is expected to weaken. In summary, as environmental protection-driven production restrictions continue to intensify, with both coke producers and steel mills facing restrictions, the tight supply and demand balance for coke is likely to change. The coke market may hold up well in the short term, but the implementation of the seventh coke price increase faces significant difficulty.[SMM Steel]